Even so, predictability should not diminish what can be learned from the outcome. Why? Because turnout and margin could well provide keen insight into where Oklahoma is heading, socially and politically.

That came to mind when Oklahoma City’s Republican mayor, David Holt, recently took to X to make note of a pre-presidential-debate Sooner Survey that found Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris tied in Oklahoma County at 45%. Another 4% chose other candidates who will appear on the ballot and 6% were undecided.

“I often make the observation,” wrote Holt, “that OKC is a microcosm of the nation, demographically & politically. This poll of the presidential race in Oklahoma County [which contains about 80% of OKC + some suburbs] … just before the debate certainly validates the latter.”

This much is certain: It was savvy spin from a mayor who knows Oklahoma City’s ability to attract new industries and talent requires a welcoming, non-judgmental civic reputation – in other words, a community where people are free to be themselves and to become all they can be.

That often isn’t an easy sell, of course. Remember when Gov. Kevin Stitt wanted to personally pitch Elon Musk on expanding into Oklahoma. Musk’s reply: “Out of respect, sure. The fundamental problem I have is getting people to move out of California. Austin [Texas] is one of the few places to which they will move.”

Though Oklahoma City’s grown nearly as fast as Austin in recent years and Tulsa’s successfully lured hundreds of remote workers with financial incentives, the state’s reputation is mixed – no doubt because of headline-grabbing, uber-right legislative proposals aimed at reinforcing patriarchy, enshrining white Christian nationalism, and stripping away individual liberties.

As is the case with many states, the welcoming, affirming “purple” city Holt promotes stands in contrast to the sea of rural “red” surrounding it. It’s sometimes difficult for us, much less for outsiders, to separate the two worlds that comprise a single state.

Still, it’s important to understand Oklahoma is not stuck in stereotypes. It is ever-changing, both politically and socially. The two urban centers are purple – or near purple. The 28 Democrats in the Oklahoma Legislature all hail from the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metropolitan areas. And while the rest of the state has elected an uber-conservative Republican supermajority, there are enough middle-of-the-road and left-of-center voters to occasionally make a difference.

Case in point: 2020’s Medicaid expansion vote. Rural areas voted against SQ 802, even though they stood to gain the most from it. It ultimately prevailed statewide thanks to solid urban support that offset losing rural margins trimmed by grass roots efforts that turned out more pro-802 voters.

Interestingly, Harris and her vice-presidential running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have been visiting rural areas in important swing states, like Pennsylvania, hoping to cut Trump’s margins enough to allow pro-Democratic urban center votes to catapult them to victory.

The Democratic standard-bearers won’t be visiting Oklahoma, of course. And it seems likely rural voters here will back Trump overwhelmingly. But if the Sooner Survey is correct, this year’s presidential results could reinforce Holt’s talking points – and help nudge Oklahoma back toward the political center.